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🌐 | Issuance of tight supply and demand warning – Electricity usage rate will reach 17% around 99:XNUMX


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Issuance of tight supply and demand warning – Electricity usage rate will reach 17% around 99:XNUMX

 
If you write the contents roughly
As the temperature is expected to rise further from the weather forecast as of the 25th, it is expected that the supply and demand of electricity in the Tokyo area will be tight.
 

On June 6, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry issued a warning of tight supply and demand.TEPCO Power Grid is about wide area block usage rate ... → Continue reading

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    Power supply and demand

    Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu

    Eur-lex.europa.eu eur-lex.europa.eu(て ん き よ ほ うIs to predict and inform how the weather will change in a certain area.[1].Weather forecast(Let's goAlso called.

    Past weather and current situationweather,(I.e.,Wind direction,wind speed,temperature,(I.e.な どatmosphereBased on this information, the weather, wind, temperature, etc. for a specific area or a wide area from the day to a few days (some types may extend to a few months). Atmospheric conditions and their related水域,groundIt predicts and conveys the state of.

    Overview

    The influence of the weather on daily life and work is very large, and it is modern in the 19th century.MeteorologyAt the same time that was born, scientific weather forecasting attempts were made. Today's weather forecasts, along with the development of meteorology that elucidates the mechanism of meteorology, are diverse and global.Weather observationNet construction,computersSupported by the development ofNumerical forecastInfrastructure development and information dissemination to the general publicMass mediaSupported and operated by.

    Earth's atmosphereBehavior isカ オ スSince it is itself, the initial value is highly sensitive and the atmospheresimulationCalculation error ofIterative calculationByExponentialIt is extremely difficult to make long-term predictions because of the increase in the number of people.AlsoterrainThe weather is likely to change suddenly in the mountainous areas, which are greatly affected by the forecast.algorithmAccurate weather forecasts often deviate, such as reduced accuracy.[2]..However, atmospheric measurements to get the initial value of the prediction,Meteorological satelliteObservation data bySuper computerForecast accuracy is improving due to the use of[2].

    Until the numerical forecast emerged, the weather forecast was based on observation recordsKnow-how,Rule of thumbIt relied heavily on the accumulation of the forecaster, and was largely influenced by the experience of the forecaster.With the advent of numerical weather prediction, the burden of analysis work has been reduced, accuracy has improved, and the range of forecasts has expanded.In addition, the automation and unmanned observations are progressing rapidly.

    Regarding meteorological observation, information gathering, and researchWorld Meteorological OrganizationInternational organizations such as (WMO), meteorological organizations around the worldDisaster preventionNational institution in charge,research Institute,UniversityIt is done in cooperation with.Responsible organizations have been established in various countries around the world with legal provisions and are in charge of weather-related operations.Liberalization of forecasting operations (opening to the private sector) is being promoted in some countries, but internationally, the World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations has decided in 1995 the 12th World Climate Conference Resolution 40 Annex 3[1][Broken link]"Except as permitted by the Member States concerned, the commercial sector meteorological service providers shall not publish forecasts and warnings relating to the safety of life and property in the countries and waters in which they operate. Forecasts and warnings related to the safety of life and property published by the National MeteorologyHydrometeorologyIt must be consistent with what a public institution, such as an institution, carries out as a responsibility for public work. "

    The modern weather forecast isGuerrilla heavy rainIntensifyIntense heatWeather represented bydisasterResponding to the increase / change ofEl Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)Arctic oscillationThe major theme is to improve forecast accuracy by incorporating the latest knowledge such as (AO).Therefore, such heavy rain etc.Abnormal weather, Such as ENSO and AOClimate pattern,Global warmingSuch asClimate changeIn addition to the clarification of the above, the meteorological agency has a certain responsibility to explain and explain the weather and climate change to citizens.

    Weather forecast elements

    General weather forecast information has four major elements: where (forecast area), what (forecast element), when to when (forecast period), and in what format (forecast format).

    Forecast area
    • For each point-Announce the forecast values ​​at major observation points and cities.
    • For each forecast area-announce the average of all the observation points in the forecast area, or the forecast value at the representative observation point.
    • For each grid point-The forecast value at each grid point will be announced by dividing the forecast area into smaller sections.
    Forecast element
    Temperature / maximum temperature / minimum temperature, humidity,Dew point temperature, Wind direction / speed,precipitation(Precipitation / Probability of Precipitation), Weather /(I.e.Height,Sea water temperatureetc.Sea ice,Thunder,GustAnd so on. Pressure pattern,(I.e.And (though not for the general public) temperature,Equivalent temperature,VorticityShows the distribution ofWeather mapForecast,Tropical cyclone(typhoonThere is also a map forecast showing the power and course of (etc.).others"#Characteristic forecastSee also.
    Forecast period
    The Japan Meteorological Agency has the following four categories[3]..See below for the actual period.
    • Short-term forecast-up to 3 hours later
    • Short-term forecast-more than 3 hours and up to 48 hours
    • Mid-term forecast-beyond 48 hours and up to 7 days
    • Long range forecast --Including after 8 days
    When forecasting the weather and temperature, we use several classification methods, such as every hour, every 1 hours, and every 3 hours, depending on the necessity and the amount of information.Cloud imageAnd radar images, etc., use finer divisions such as every 5 minutes, every 10 minutes, every 30 minutes, and every hour.
    Forecast format[4]
    • Category Forecast-Choose one of several categories to announce.weather("Sunny""Cloudy""(I.e.")Such.
    • Quantitative forecast-The forecast value is rounded to the appropriate position and announced.Temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed[Note 1]etc.
    • Probability Forecast-Predicted ValueprobabilityExpressed as, rounded to an appropriate value and announced.Precipitation probability etc.

    The above three formats are typical forecast formats. Other than this, one that most likely represents one condition (such as a weather map) that cannot be classified.

    History of weather forecast

    Pre-modern forecast

    The weather has had a great impact on many people's livelihoods and lives, and in ancient times this was even more important. For about thousands of years, people have been trying to predict what the weather will be for a day, or a season. In 650 BC,BabyloniaPeople(I.e.Predicting the weather from the pattern ofア リ ス ト テ レ スDepicted a pattern of weather based on meteorology.Mainland ChinaEthnic groups also predicted the weather by at least 300 BC.

    In ancient times, methods of forecasting weather were all reliant on experience because they relied on finding patterns of weather.for example,日 没Sometimes the sky is noticeably red, the next day is expected to be sunny, and so on (""Sunset #Weather lore"reference).This experience is a cross-generational wisdom about weather (for example).proverbSuch,Ambition) Will be accumulated. However, not all of these predictions prove to be reliable, and weather studies that rely on their experience have shown that later studies may not rely on rigorous statistical analysis. I'm doing it.

    In particularFisherman,Cruise shipSince sailors such as these are life-threatening when they go out into rough seas, observe and predict the weather.JapanThen, we emphasized "opportunism"[2]..Remain in various parts of JapanHiyoriyamaPlace names such as (Hiyoriyama) are based on observation of the weather condition from there.

    1884 in Japan (MeijiThe first modern weather forecast was announced on June 17, 6.Edo PeriodToHirado DomainChange of attendanceThe Yamazaki family, who was in charge of operating the ship, was focusing on weather observation and forecasting called "Tenkimiyo".[2].

    Weather forecast modernization

    1837 yearstelegramThe era of modern weather forecasts did not come until the invention of.Until this inventionsteam locomotiveIt was not possible to convey information about real-time atmospheric conditions even a little faster.However, the invention of the telegram made it possible to collect information on weather conditions from a wide range almost instantly.This made it possible to forecast weather based on information on far windward weather.

    Crimean WarIn a stormBlack SeaAfter the British and French fleet was destroyed,France OfParis ObservatoryStandingYurban LevelierConducts research to predict storms and finds the need for weather forecasts.Napoleon IIII advised.

    Established in 1854British Meteorological AgencyIs one of the earliest established meteorological institutions in the world,the 1870sTo start creating a weather map,1879Has been making advanced efforts such as starting to provide information to newspapers. Western countries with advanced meteorology,1873To the International Meteorological Organization (IMO, laterWorld Meteorological Organization) Was established to promote international cooperation.on the other hand,Military secretSince there are some parts that are accompanied by, the forecast know-how is largely cultivated by each country.

    The person most believed to have been responsible for the birth of scientific weather forecasts wasFrancis Beaufort(Beaufort Wind ClassKnown as) and his subordinatesRobert Fitzroy(Developer of the Fitzroy Barometer). Two peopleRoyal navyAn influential figure in the political and political circles, who was ridiculed in the newspapers at the time, their work gained scientific credibility and was accepted by the British fleet, forming all the foundations of today's weather forecast knowledge. did.

    Modern weather forecast

    During the 20th century, meteorology, which incorporated studies of atmospheric changes, made great strides. The concept of numerical forecast1922ToLouis Fly RichardsonPresented by. However, at the time, there was no computer that could perform the enormous amount of calculation needed to make a weather forecast.1970For the first time, it became possible to carry out weather forecasting operations around the world using numerical forecasting.

    The globalization of weather forecasts is progressing due to the development of international television broadcasting and the Internet.[5]..In particular, private meteorological companies in developed countries have begun to deliver weather forecasts from around the world to users via the Internet and various media based on data observed by meteorological organizations around the world and their own companies.[5]..While global weather forecasts improve convenience, information sources, forecasting technology, reliability, etc. are difficult to see, and due to the situation where the information of the responsible state agency and the forecast of each private weather operator are different in the weather phenomenon that causes a disaster. Problems that cause confusion for recipients have also been pointed out.[5]..The World Meteorological Organization WMO provides weekly forecasts for major cities around the world and official information on prominent disaster-risk phenomena to alleviate information confusion.[5].

    On the other hand, along with the commercialization of meteorological services, the nation is moving to charge for meteorological services against the backdrop of reviews of public services in each country and fiscal austerity.[5]..A prominent example isNew ZealandSo, in New Zealand, government companies wholly owned by the government are now offering weather services for a fee.[5]..This trend of commercialization can be seen in Europe as well, but in the United States and Japan, weather services can be provided by national institutions with only communication charges, which is the opposite of commercialization.[5]..It is said that the commercialization policy of meteorological services will be a factor that hinders the effective use of meteorological information and the willingness to develop.[5].

    Weather forecast system

    Modern weather forecast systems consist of five components.

    • Information gathering
    • Fusion of information
    • Numerical forecast
    • Knock out the type of weather change
    • Providing predictions to end users

    Information gathering

    As meteorology started with steady observations, continuous observations support weather forecasts. At the time when manned observations were the mainstream because there were no digital instruments, many observation points were set up and regular observations were carried out manually by people. Now that automatic observation has become widespread, it is easy to increase the number of observation points, and unmanned operation is also progressing.

    Currently, as the mainstream observation method in the world,

    • On land,Thermometer,Hygrometer,Wind direction anemometer,barometer,Rain gauge,Snow cover,Evaporator,Pyranometer,Sunshine meterEtc. are often installed as an automatic weather station (AWS) as a set (in consideration of efficiency, highly important measuring instruments such as thermometers and rain gauges are often installed at high density).in JapanAmedusIs this.Generally, it is installed so as to cover the national land with a certain density, including major cities.Meteorological stations that perform both forecasting and observation are also installed in major cities.Also, in developed countries, to cover the landWeather radar(Microwave,Millimeter wave,dualDoppler) Is in place.The United States of AmericaSo the Doppler radar networkNEXRADHas been maintained.
    • At sea, in addition to temperature and pressureSea water temperatureAnd the flow velocityOcean weather buoyIs being installed.Weather stationObservations by countries are also being conducted.
    • In the sky, as a part of high-level meteorological observationRadio sonde(Ray Winsonde),Rocket sonde,Drop sondeObservations such as are being carried out.On the ground when forecasting the weatherTroposphereIt is very important to know the temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind in the sky up to the upper part, and since this cannot be done by satellite observation, the manpower and the observation network are maintained even in the unmanned flow.Observations by aircraft are also being carried out,Passenger planeThe equipment installed in the is also an important source of information[6].. Installed on the ground as a new observation methodTO DEAL,SODARThe use of sky wind speed observations by the above is becoming widespread.In addition, remote sensing observations by meteorological satellites are also carried out.(I.e.Images andwater vaporDistribution, temperature, wind direction / speed, etc. are collected.

    In order to keep the accuracy of observations constant, WMO has established uniform standards for the specifications and operation of observation equipment, and each country has established detailed standards based on them. Of observation equipment in JapanMeteorological instrument certificationThe “Meteorological Observation Guide” by the Japan Meteorological Agency, etc. corresponds to this.

    The observation points that provide information internationally have been set, centered on the meteorological observatory, which has many observational elements, and are placed on the Global Meteorological Communication System (GTS) and distributed worldwide. In Japan, it is connected to GTS via ADESS, which is a network constructed by the Japan Meteorological Agency. There is also an information network such as. This international dataSYNOP,SHIP,METARSo-called international such asWeather reportThe information will be sent in a regular format (every 3 hours for SYNOP, every 1 hour for METAR, etc.)/temporarily according to the uniform standards set by WMO and ICAO.

    Fusion of information

    Prompt transmission and collection of information is important for weather forecasts. At the Japan Meteorological Agency,COSMETSIs integrating and organizing information. International data, buoys, radiosondes, and meteorological observation data are sent via ADESS.Weather informationData will be sent to COSMETS via the server of the Meteorological Satellite Center and data of AMeDAS will be sent to COSMETS via the Regional Meteorological Observation Center. Internationally, information is exchanged between meteorological organizations in each country through a global communication network called (GTS). For developing countries, major meteorological organizations in each region also prepare and provide guidance materials (described later) under the Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS).

    Numerical forecast

    Composed of theoretical formulasNumerical forecast modelEnter the observed value in (Data assimilation). Since the distribution of data is sparse due to the bias of observation points, the estimated values ​​(Objective analysis) To correct the data. Guidance is created using this data as primary data.

    The Meteorological Agency calculates numerical forecasts using NAPS, which is the calculation part of COSMETS, and sends the forecast results to the Meteorological Agency headquarters and other weather stations. High-performance for calculationSuper computerIs essential, and its performance affects forecast accuracy and speed.

    Knock out the type of weather change

    Since the calculation result of the numerical weather prediction model only outputs the physical quantity in the grid point format, it is necessary to convert it into a form that is easy to use for forecasting.For example, "translation work" is performed such as creating a weather map based on the barometric pressure distribution data, calculating the cloud cover from the humidity / temperature / barometric pressure data, and then calculating the weather distribution.The weather pattern material created in this way is called weather forecast guidance.Usually, some patterns of guidance materials are output, and examinations are made from them, optimization and correction are performed to determine one value or numerical range, forecast texts are examined, and warning judgments are made. I go.

    Providing forecasts to general users

    The derived information will be summarized according to the type of forecast and announced in an appropriate format.The longer the forecast period, the lower the accuracy, so general weather forecasts such as weather, temperature, and probability of precipitation are only made until one week later.In addition, there are various weather forecast formats such as radar images and nowcasts that provide the state of local phenomena such as rain, lightning, gusts, and torrential rain, and typhoon information that shows the course of typhoons on a map.

    In addition, Air traffic control,Train,bus,ShipEtc. need to provide specialized information suitable for the field. For example, in air traffic controlAirfield forecastAnd air routesTurbulence,Icing,Volcanic ashForecast of the ship(I.e.,Ocean current,Sea water temperatureFor example, the prediction of.

    Weather forecast accuracy

    The reliability of the weather forecast depends on the accuracy of the forecast.Accuracy rate at the Japan Meteorological Agency (1992~2019The national average of 28 years) is 17% in the forecast the day after the announcement at 00:83, 80% the day after the announcement two days later, and 11% in the forecast 00 days after weekly weather announced at 7:67.[7]..The accuracy rate is defined as "the accuracy rate of the presence or absence of precipitation", and is not an accuracy judgment of the general weather conditions such as sunny and cloudy weather.

    There are several forecast accuracy evaluation methods for each forecast format.[8][9].

    In the category forecast, the number of event occurrences in each category is summarized in a table in both actual and forecast, and is expressed using the following indexes. In this method, it is appropriate to use two categories (four categories in total) as to whether the phenomenon occurs or not, as the missed rate and the missed rate.

    Hit rate (match rate)
    Occurrence rate (%) of events in which the actual category and the forecast category match.
    In the case of the predictive value of each forecast category, the ratio (%) of the events actually occurred to the target category in the forecast may be calculated.
    Missing rate
    Occurrence rate (%) of events that actually occurred, but did not occur in the forecast.
    Missing rate
    The occurrence rate (%) of events that did not actually occur, but were predicted to occur.
    Capture rate
    The percentage (%) of the events that actually occurred in the forecast among the events that actually occurred.
    Threat score
    Events that occurred in both actual and forecast/all events-Events that did not occur in actuality or forecast (%)... Suitable for events that rarely occur.
    Skill score
    1-( In Forecast/Climate Value Forecast[Note 2]Mean square error at[10]…1 is a complete forecast, and the closer it is, the higher the forecast accuracy. Forecast difficulty is excluded.
    Bias score
    Events that occurred in the forecast/events that actually occurred (%): The closer to 1, the smaller the bias between missed and missed events.

    The following indicators are used in the quantitative forecast.

    (ME)
    …Indicates the bias of the forecast average over the period.
    (RMSE
    …Indicates the standard magnitude of forecast error.

    The following indicators are used in the probability forecast.

    (BS
    …The sum of the probability errors when the forecast probability Fi is the actual value Ai (1 when it occurs, 0 when it does not occur), divided by the number N of forecasts. The closer the value is to 0, the higher the accuracy.
    Briar Skill Score (BSc-BSf)/BSc
    A comparison of the Briar score (BSc) of the climate value forecast and the Briar score (BSf) of the forecast. The larger the value, the greater the significance of the forecast.

    Weather forecast agency

    International organization

    As a major international organization on meteorology, it is a subordinate organization of the United Nations.World Meteorological Organization(WMO, HeadquartersGeneva) AndInternational Civil Aviation OrganizationThere is (ICAO)[5].

    In the field of weather forecasting, WMO has adopted "Technical Regulations" and "International Meteorological Report Ceremony" for international unification of observation methods, built a network dedicated to international meteorology, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMC) and Special Regional Liability Center. Support centers such as (RSMC) have been set up.[5]..Due to the unified observation method and the construction of international lines, daily numerical weather prediction models can be operated in developed countries.[5]..In developing countries, the information provided by the Special Regional Responsibility Center RSMC is available on international lines and the Internet to help forecast the weather in their own countries.[5].

    Institutions of each country

    Weather forecast in Europe and America

    Weather forecast in the United States

    United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Meteorological qualifications

    In the United States, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has been conducting a qualification test for a CCM (Certified Consulting Meteorologist) since 1956 (a skill qualification, not a national qualification).[11].. The requirements for CCM have been revised many times, but the requirement is to have a certain degree of meteorology study and credits at a higher education institution.[11].

    Also, as a qualification for weather casters appearing on radio and television, the Seal of Approval Program for Radio and Television (founded in 1959 by AMS scientists) and the National Weather Association Broadcast Seal of Approval (1982 National Weather Association) Association) is founded)[11].

    Weather forecast in United Kingdom

    British Meteorological Agency

    Weather forecast media

    British Broadcasting Corporation(BBC) has been broadcasting weather forecasts since its establishment, but it started broadcasting daily weather forecasts.1923It is from March. BBC192211/14The weather forecast was provided by the British Meteorological Agency, but the censorship was reported in 2015.[12].

    capitalUK OfPiccadilly CircusThe weather bulletin will be displayed on the electronic bulletin board after the renovation in 2017[13].

    World Air Forecast Center

    The United States and the United Kingdom share the operation of the World Airspace Forecast Center and provide wind and temperature information necessary for international flight plans and aircraft operations.[5].

    Weather forecast in Japan

    JapaneseMeteorological Service LawFrom observation and collection of information on weather to presentation, research, and business incidental to them.Meteorological service",Japanese Meteorological AgencyIs the center.

    JMA forecast

    Japanese Meteorological AgencyThe types of public forecasts announced byForecast wardThe weather conditions are forecasted and the map is divided into squares of a certain size.Per gridSome forecast the weather conditions.

    As an example of the former,

    • Time series forecast (every 3 hours, forecast up to 24 hours ahead)
    • Short-term forecast (today, tomorrow, tomorrow's forecast)
    • Weekly forecast (forecast from the day after the announcement to 7 days ahead)
    • Seasonal forecast (Approximate weather characteristics up to 1 month/3 months ahead)

    There is. Also,alarm-Warning,Weather informationWill be announced for each forecast area.

    Before[When?]The weekly forecast was about once a week, but later it was announced about twice a week, but now it is announced daily. As for the seasonal forecast, it is general to issue a forecast three months ahead at the end of the month and one forecast for the following month every Thursday.

    The types of forecast zones are "general" (nationwide), "regional" (11 nationwide), and "prefecture" (prefectures).TokyoVast, includingHokkaidoIs subdivided for each of 2 to 3 promotion stations), and which forecast zone the forecast is announced depends on the type of forecast.

    In addition to the weather forecast, the forecast includes the highest and lowest temperatures,rainy percentForecast is also included.In addition, time-series forecasts and short-term forecasts include hourly temperature, wind direction / speed, precipitation, and wave height.The temperature, wind direction, wind speed, weather, etc. are representative points in the forecast zone (weather station orAmedusThe forecast value at the point where the observatory is located) is announced.

    In principle, short-term forecasts and regional time series forecasts are announced three times at 5:11, 17:3, and 11:17. Weekly forecasts are announced twice at 2:XNUMX and XNUMX:XNUMX.

    2008 year 7 month 28 dayTsugagawa water accidentAnd occurred on August 2014, 8Hiroshima landslide disasterEven if the originally announced forecast does not lead to heavy rain (cloudy and sometimes sunny), suddenlyCumulonimbusMay develop and cause heavy rain.Particular attention should be paid when "with lightning" is announced.

    An example of the latter is

    • Weather Forecast: Weather, Temperature, Precipitation, Snowfall (Forecast every 3 hours up to 24 hours ahead)
    • Precipitation short-term forecast (every hour, forecast up to 1 hours ahead)
    • Precipitation/Thunder/Tornado Nowcast (Every 10 minutes, forecast up to 1 hour ahead)
    • Yellow sand information forecast (every 6 hours up to 4 days ahead)
    • Ultraviolet information (forecast every hour until 1:18 the next day)
    • Forecast weather map (24 and 48 hours later)
    • Typhoon information[Note 3](Up to 1 hours ahead, 3 days and 24 days ahead every 3 or 5 hours)

    There is.

    Compared to the former (for each forecast area), there are many types of forecasts that show forecasts while observing past analysis and the current progress of actual conditions. Due to the fact that long-term forecasting is difficult, transmitting short-term forecasts quickly increases reliability.

    It is roughly classified into a mesh format that shows the forecast using a mesh that divides the Japanese archipelago with a grid of several to several tens of kilometers, and a weather chart format that shows the forecast by showing isobars etc. on the map around the Japanese archipelago. There are two things.

    In the forecast for ships (weather map) provided separately from the forecast for the general public, barometric pressure,Streamline,Wind. ,Vorticity,temperature,Moisture,Precipitation amountHave announced forecasts.

    Forecast term

    The Meteorological Agency's weather forecast defines terms used for forecasts to prevent misunderstandings and confusion, and also instructs the media to use terms that are similar. There are unique expressions and strictly defined expressions. Below are examples of commonly used terms.

    • Temporary...Continuous phenomenon, less than 1/4 of the forecast period (the forecast text often involves time subdivision).
    • Occasionally... It is an intermittent phenomenon (there is a gap of 1 hour or more) that is less than 1/2 of the forecast period (the forecast text may include time subdivision).
    • Depending on the place (some places)... When the places where the phenomenon occurs are difficult to express with a specific area name, and the total area is less than 50% of the forecast area.

    詳 し く は 「Forecast termSee.

    Warnings, warnings, etc.

    alarmIs seriousdisasterIt is a forecast that warns that there is a possibility of occurrence.

    If an alert is announced,NHK General TelevisionThen on the screentelopIs displayed.It is displayed in red during the weather information program.NHK Radio First Broadcast(For FM broadcast,Radio midnight flightOnly when broadcasting. However, in the case of not broadcasting), we interrupted the program being broadcast and said, "This is a weather announcement although it is in the middle of a program (song). The heavy rain flood warning was announced in the ○○□ and △△ regions earlier." It is reported that an alarm was announced as such.

    Forecast to be issued in case of a disaster that may occur according to the warning, or to call attention to a phenomenon that has a widespread hindrance to social and economic activities.WarningThat.

    Warnings and warnings and information related to them are not only announced individually by the Meteorological Agency, but alsoRiverTo be announced jointly with the river managerJoint flood forecastOr to announce in collaboration with prefectures to supplement the heavy rain warning and call attention to landslides etc.Earth and sand disaster caution informationThere is also.

    Forecast business license business

    Currently, not only the Meteorological Agency, but also public and privateForecast business license businessAlso offers its own forecast. In addition, when a licensed operator conducts forecasting work,Weather forecasterMust be placed.

    The current list of forecast business licensed operators is JMA Official List Please refer to. Here, in addition to private companies that make weather forecasts,Hitachi City-HabikinoLocal governments such asWeather forecaster) Is included.

    The business of weather forecasts performed by licensed businesses overlaps with the Japan Meteorological Agency, but there are also various unique businesses. As a representativeSakura FrontThere are three licensed companies, and now they are making announcements.Because it was an application field, not a core field[Source required], The former JMA has decided to cancel the announcement in 2010. Note that warnings and warnings are so important that only the Japan Meteorological Agency will do so to prevent confusion.

    Observation data and ground data for numerical forecasts, which are primary data used by licensed businesses,Meteorological Business Support CenterIt is also provided by and can be used by any business. However, there are also places where the numerical forecast itself is carried out by its own equipment. The central part of the forecast data (guidance) is unique to each company, and each company publishes the forecast based on this.

    Unique forecast

    Weather forecasts often include other information that is closely related to the weather. They have various characteristics depending on the season and region.

    Routes for people to get weather forecast information

    In 2017, on how people get information on weather forecastsMacro millAccording to the results of the company's survey of 1000 people in Japan, the number one medium (information source) for people to check the weather forecast is "TV program weather forecast cornerApproximately 8%, second place is "Smartphone (mobile phone) weather informationAppsIs used by about 5% of people[15]..The tendency to use TV programs and smartphone apps varies from generation to generation, and the younger the generation, the better.SmartphoneThere is a tendency to get weather forecast information from (smartphones), and 20% of women in their 75s get information from smartphone apps.[15].

    broadcast

    broadcast(tv set-radioIn)Weather information program,News programBroadcast regularly at the weather section inside. Depending on the programs handled, those that are announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency may be used as they are, those that use the weather information contracted by each company station, and those that are exclusive.Weather forecasterThere is one that is uniquely processed based on the provided information. When a warning is announced (issued/cancelled), a telop may be sent.Press special program(Mainly NHK) will be broadcast.Satellite broadcasting-Cable TVThen treat only the weatherProfessional channelThere is.Tokyo Metropolitan TelevisionHad announced the "101 times weather forecast" before the opening of the Internet when the Internet was not yet widespread, and it broadcasted the weather forecast frequently after the actual opening although it was not so many. Are you influenced by this,Television Tokyo Channel 12, Ltd.Also, from 1997 to 2003, at the end of each program, "Weather Break" was broadcast automatically through the network.

    Generally on TVNews (Chinese)Then the weather forecastイ ラ ス トIt is displayed so that it can be intuitively understood by the mark.In TV broadcasting, at the very beginning, the TV camera shows a map board (sometimes a weather map) with a weather forecast illustration mark attached.announcerWas a way to read out forecasts for each region. Eventually, subtitles and subtitles appeared, and nowadays, the following illustration marks are mostly displayed.News Watch 9 Weather CornerThere are also cases where it becomes a character.

    • Sunny
    (I.e.Displayed in. If the weather tonight (including midnight in the time series forecast) is fine,,MonthIs often used. It was changed from the point of view of the viewer that the sun mark was strange even at night.
    • Cloudy
    (I.e.Displayed with. "Yahoo!In "Weather", we use two types of cloudy weather: gray cloudy weather, which has a high probability of rain, and white cloudy weather, which does not rain (after November 2).
    umbrellaIt is often displayed as.Normally, the umbrella is shown in the open state, and in the case of "temporary rain", the umbrella is shown in the folded state.
    ThunderWhen accompanied by, it may be accompanied by a lightning mark in the image of lightning. Also, depending on the company (often seen in the TBS series) cloud mark (cloud color is gray) may be accompanied by raindrops or lightning marks.
    When explaining a thunderstorm by announcement, it is often said that it will be accompanied by thunder, rather than "it will be a thunderstorm."
    • (I.e.
    typhoonIn the rain due to approach, etc.(I.e.When it is accompanied by, it is shown that raindrops are flying with an “open umbrella”. Once upon a time, illustrations with large tree trunks were used.
    When explaining in an announcement, it is often explained that "rain will accompany a storm" rather than "it will be a storm." This is because both "storm" and "storm" are pronounced "bofu", which is likely to induce misunderstandings.
    • snow
    snowman(In the case of "temporary snow" such as NHK, NTV, Fuji TV, etc., the snowman is displayed small) orCrystal of snowDisplayed on (TBS series, TV Asahi, etc.). When animated, it sometimes makes it look like snow is slowly falling.
    • Storm snow
    With a stormWind and snowIf it is "strong", it is displayed as if snow is flying heavily.
    When explaining this also in the announcement, it is often said that "it will be accompanied by a storm with snow" rather than "it will be a storm"
    • Thunder
    lightningDisplayed in. In the 1970sDemonIt used to be a demon's demon (TBS system)Giraffe lemon OfWeather mom), in recent years many have portrayed clearer lightning.

    One or two of these marks are combined and expressed, but in some areas such as NTV, there are cases where three marks are used in cases such as "sunny and sometimes rain or snow."

    • "After" "temporary" etc.
    There are several methods for expressing "after" and "sometimes/temporarily" used in weather forecasts. "After" turns to the rightArrow(→) is the mainstream method (otherwiseス ラ ッ シ ュPlace two marks, such as (/), with an arrow in between or below. "Sometimes" and "Temporary" line up two marks, overlap marks, display the mark after "Sometimes / Temporarily" in a small size, between the two marksVertical barPut (|).

    Smartphone app

    smartphone(AndroidPhoneiPhone) Provides weather forecast informationAppsAre very diverse and are offered free of charge.For example, for an Android phoneGoogle PlayIf you click and enter "weather forecast" as a keyword in the search field and search, a large number of weather forecast apps (more than 2021 as of 100) will be displayed, so from among them from other users If you select and install it in consideration of evaluation and each function, you can start using it immediately.

    WEB SITE

    PCSuch asWeb browserUsing the Meteorological OrganizationインターネットupperWEB SITEYou can get the primary information with.Portal siteIn addition to providing weather pages by concluding contracts with primary information sources on media sites such as the media and the media, some general sites also incorporate tools for displaying weather information.

    Also, on the PCdesktopUse onWidget(Gadget)Application softwareSome of them display weather information.Internet broadcastingEven in, there is a weather channel.

    On the internetAccuWeatherForeign companies that are not licensed operators have also announced weather forecasts for Japan.

    電子 メ ー ル

    Some licensed businesses, portal sites, local governments, etc., issue warnings to pre-registered users電子 メ ー ルWe are providing a service to broadcast.

    News (Chinese)

    MostNews (Chinese)Then, the forecast is described in the weather column.

    Telephone (telephone service)

    NTT

    Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation(Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation)TelAs the first information service (), the test was started in September 1954 and expanded nationwide from January 9.[16]. August 1964[16]From nationally unifiedPhone Number(3-digit special number) "177Was introduced, and the successorNippon Telegraph and Telephone(NTT) andNTT East-NTT WestBut the service is continuing.

    • In principle, we will provide detailed information on the general situation (actual results on the day) and forecasts for the day, the next day, and the day after next.IsJapan Weather AssociationViaLocal weather station(Tokyo isJapanese Meteorological Agency) Received the forecast information announced for each region, and followed the fixed phrase automatically generated by NTT.Synthetic speech(Automatic voice response device).It is updated about 1 to 8 times a day in conjunction with the announcement data.
      • Telephone services are also available in various places to provide weekly weather forecasts up to 7 days later. It is not a 3-digit special number but a subscriber's telephone number (the number system differs depending on the region), and the number is introduced at the end of the voice guidance in each area.
      • Until the early 1990s, each announcement was a form in which a commentary by a female narrator (sometimes male in some areas) was recorded and played on endless tapes.For this reason, the morning sometimes started with a "Good morning" greeting.
    • If you simply dial "177" in each area, the forecast for the area you called will be displayed (Local phoneCharges apply).You can hear the forecast of the area of ​​the area code by calling "Area code +177" with the area code in front of the number (Long distance callCharges apply).
      • However, when I try to ask for "Area code +3" in an area where the area code is 177 digits, it does not connect or "***"*There is an area code where an announcement is made to call back with "-177" in 4 digits.This is because the top three digits of the area code are used across prefectures.[Note 4].
      • In "Area code +177", the forecast of the neighboring prefecture may be sent instead of the prefecture according to the address of the sender (eg,Hyogo内 のAmagasaki06,Itami City-Kawanishi City-KawabeInagawa TownThe whole area ofTakarazuka072) in some areas.Because both are area codes used in the adjacent land.Landline phones in the relevant city or townPublic phoneThis does not apply to cases from.
      • In November 2008, due to the expansion of the forecast warning business of the Japan Meteorological Agency, it did not exist until then.Ogasawara Village177 (04998+177) targeted at area was started.
    • Mobile phones that are difficult to identify the calling area on the network (PHSExcludes[Note 5]), Only the above "Area code +177" can be connected.IP phone-Internet phoneIn some cases, the provider may not be able to connect.
    • Relay telephone(My line) AndDirect telephoneWhen making a call from a local line, you will be connected and charged via the line even for local calls.
    Other telephone operators
    • OnceTokyo communication network(KDDIAbsorbed and disappeared)Tokyo Phone AstelTokyo phoneLimited to outgoing fromHello weather"The original weather forecast dial was offered from December 2000. This is the weather forecast of the same level as 12 based on the information provided by the licensed operator, which is the character of Tokyo Phone at that time.Keiko MatsuzakaTo guide you.International Telecommunications Research InstituteVoice of MatsuzakasamplingGeneratedSynthetic speechHowever, depending on the time, you can say "Good morning" and "Good evening", and you can speak naturally.HealingHis systematic narrative was characteristic. Phone number is 8610 (city) and area code +8610. Tokyo Telephone Astel also operated the number 155#8610, which provides the weather forecast for the current location based on the location information of the base station.[17][18].. The service ended in the latter half of 2001.

    Electronic bulletin boards, etc.

    Forecasting mainly in urban areasElectronic bulletin board,In-car information displayIs installed in a prominent place on the street. There is also a character/mark type, but in recent yearsLiquid crystal display(LCD) method is increasing. Also,Electric train,aircraftIn public transportation, there are places where the weather information provided by the primary information source is displayed on the LCD.

    Chronology of Japanese weather forecast

    the 2000sIn the first halfインターネットThe spread ofWebsiteThe latest weather forecast can now be obtained at any time, making it easy to obtain past weather data.Mobile phoneThe spread of has made weather forecasts even easier to obtain. In the late 2000s,Terrestrial digital TV broadcastingGround wave with the startData broadcastingIt is now possible to get the weather forecast at any time.

    footnote

    [How to use footnotes]

    注 釈

    1. ^ Class expressions such as "weak," "strong," and "very strong."Wind powerIf it is expressed by, it will be included in the category forecast.
    2. ^ Climate value forecast is a forecast that completely depends on the climate value (normal value).
    3. ^ No course forecast was made for tropical cyclones, but for tropical cyclones that may develop into typhoons, course forecasts began on September 2020, 9.[14]
    4. ^ Details of the numberArea code in Japan・Various classificationsRefer to the first three-digit item that spans multiple prefectures (eg,GifuMinoLocal 058 {0582-177 ・ 0586 and 0587AichiUsed in the west}ShizuokaWestern region 053 {0538-177, 0531 to 0533 used in eastern Aichi Prefecture}YamanashiChubu region 055 {0552-177 ・ 0550 and 0557 to 055-9 ** are used in the eastern part of Shizuoka prefecture} etc.).
    5. ^ I actually confirmed it with the Y!mobile model.

    Source

    1. ^ Meaning of Ten-ki [weather] gooDictionary (viewed April 2017, 4)
    2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k 【I see!Roots Survey Team] Weather forecast, professional accuracy for Hirado domain, improvement with satellite and supercomputer"Nihon Keizai Shimbun』Evening issue June 2022, 7 Living navigation side (viewed July 4, 2022)
    3. ^ Forecast term Forecast name Japanese Meteorological Agency
    4. ^ 5-2. Classification of forecast Tama's Meteorology (viewed January 2011, 1)
    5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Takehiko Furukawa. “Cross-border weather forecast”. Weather 54 (5) (Japan Meteorological Society). https://www.metsoc.jp/tenki/pdf/2007/2007_05_0017.pdf 2021/1/31Browse.. 
    6. ^ "The World Meteorological Organization has reduced the accuracy of weather forecasts due to the cancellation of global flights."NHK
    7. ^ Annual value of the predictive value with or without precipitation Japan Meteorological Agency (accessed September 2020, 4)
    8. ^ Forecast accuracy evaluation Tama's Meteorology (viewed January 2011, 1)
    9. ^ Accuracy verification result of weather forecast Explanation of verification method Japan Meteorological Agency, (viewed January 2011, 1)
    10. ^ skill AMS Glossary (viewed January 2011, 1)
    11. ^ a b c d Masako Konishi. “About the world weather qualification situation”. Weather 48 (3) (Japan Meteorological Society). https://www.metsoc.jp/tenki/pdf/2001/2001_03_0171.pdf 2021/1/31Browse.. 
    12. ^ "BBC to terminate the 93 contract to provide weather forecasts with the Met Office"Srad (August 2015, 08)
    13. ^ "British Piccadilly Circus electric bulletin board turned off due to renovation work since World War II"AFP(2017 1 年 月 日 17)
    14. ^ Tropical Cyclones Forecast Up to 5 Days Ahead Typhoon-Japan Meteorological Agency[Broken link]Newsletter
    15. ^ a b As for the confirmation of the weather forecast, "TV" is 8%, which greatly exceeds "smartphone"! (According to Macromill)PR TIMES
    16. ^ a b Half a century since the first telephone service "Weather Forecast Service 1" started ~ History and episodes ~ NTT East
    17. ^ Tokyo Telephone/Tokyo Telephone Astel New Service Launch of "Hello Weather," weather voice information service TTNet (December 2000, 12)
    18. ^ Weather voice information service by voice of Keiko Matsuzaka on Astel phone Keitai Watch (December 2000, 12 27:16)
    19. ^ a b [Stained Glass] Yukichi Fukuzawa's Curiosity-Footprints of Fukuzawa-senseiKeio University (January 2007, 1)
    20. ^ "By place" is from English Asahi Shimbun digital"Word Magazine" February 2013, 2
    21. ^ Kiyoshi Ishii "The Story of Frank Baba, the Man Who Made Japanese Broadcasting"Mainichi Shimbun, Nov. 1998, 10, p. 30.ISBN 4-620-31247-9. 
    22. ^ Half a century since the launch of the first telephone service, "Weather Forecast Service 1" NTT East (December 2004, 12)

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