Angle: London trains local talent for climate change
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With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events associated with global warming, the risk of floods and the heat wave is increasing.
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Definition and concept of extreme weather
Japanese Meteorological AgencyThen,Last two years Ofclimate"Weather that shows a significant bias against" is defined as abnormal weather.World Meteorological OrganizationThe definition of abnormal weather is "a phenomenon in which the average temperature and precipitation are significantly biased from normal, and the deviation occurs only once every 25 years or more."
エ ル ニ ー ニ ョPhenomenon and thisSouthern vibrationIncludingENSOIs said to cause extreme weather, but El Nino /La NiñaThe phenomenon occurs in a cycle of several years,It is not "El Nino / La Nina phenomenon = abnormal weather".As will be described later, the cause of abnormal weather is neither El Nino / La Nina (regardless of whether El Nino / La Nina is included or not, various conditions occur in a complex and complex manner). In addition, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency's Extreme Weather Report, "Phenomena that deviate significantly from the phenomena experienced in the past and are rarely experienced by humans in their lifetime (occurred about once in the past few decades)."(Japan Meteorological Agency: Extreme Weather Report)I am also
"Abnormal weather" is almost synonymous with the English words "extreme weather", "unusual weather", "abnormal weather", and "anomalous weather", and is considered to be the concept of extreme weather and rare weather. ..
However, the occurrence of abnormal weather itself is a natural event, and as long as the earth exists, a certain amount will always occur. Since human life is only about XNUMX years at the most, and the literature related to modern meteorology is only about the past hundreds to thousands of years, we can observe even the weather that can occur "normally" on the earth. It can be said that it is defined as "abnormal" for the life and history of human beings.
Extreme weather and time scale
The cycle of natural fluctuations varies, and the cycle of one daySolar radiationFrom (daily fluctuation of temperature) to seasonal change, the sun with a cycle of more than XNUMX yearsBlack dotActivity, hundreds of thousands of yearsMilankovitch cycleUp to. In addition, there are various cycles of climate change on a global and regional scale, ranging from days to hundreds of thousands of years.
Those with long or short cycles do not meet the criteria for abnormal weather "once every 30 or 25 years", and when they are in fluctuating mountains or valleys, even if they are abnormal weather from the present, at that time The situation may not be extreme weather. For these reasons, the judgment of whether or not the weather is abnormal depends greatly on the measure (time scale) used at that time.
Various extreme weather
The following phenomena, to varying degrees, are generally considered to be extreme weather events.
- Cold spring
- Warm spring
- Cold summer
- Intense heat(Severe heat, hot summer)
- Cold autumn
- Warm autumn
- Cold winter
- Warm winter
- heat wave(High temperature) * Regardless of the season.
- Cold wave(Low temperature) * Regardless of the season.
- Light rain(drought)
- Heavy snow(heavy snow)
- Long-term light wind
- Long-term strong wind (Wind damage）
other than this,Seasonal phenomenonIt is also one of the abnormal weather that the time of the event is greatly deviated.Chuxue,Freezing(First ice),First snow,First in spring,Rainy season such asPhysical chemistryPhenomenon, of courseAutumn leaves,Flowering, First cry, first look,hibernation such asBiochemistryPhenomenon (Phenological observation) Is also included.
The following phenomena are usually possible weather, but they are abnormal weather depending on changes in power, increase / decrease, and bias of course.
- Tropical cyclone(Typhoon, cyclone, hurricane)
- storm(Storms, winter storms, spring storms, etc.)
- Torrential rain
- Gust(Strong wind, downburst, dust devil, tornado)
- (I.e.(Dense fog)
Causes of extreme weather
Most of what is considered to be extreme weatherMeteorological disturbanceHowever, as the weather changes from moment to moment as it develops and degenerates in the global flow, adverse conditions overlap, and it is a sudden phenomenon caused by the action of natural fluctuations. But artificialClimate change,Heat islandIt has been pointed out that the local climate such as is related to abnormal weather. There are many other causes of extreme weather. Factors of abnormal weather (triggers, phenomena that enhance or reduce abnormal weather) are listed below.
- ブ ロ ッ キ ン グ
- 大規模 なVolcano Oferuption(aerosolRapid increase in concentration)
- Solar activityFluctuation
- Global warming(Only those caused by artificial things)
- Heat island
- deforestation,Desertification(Barren land),Glacier,permafrostMelting, etc.Land useChange in (ground condition)
Increased extreme weather
20st centuryIt is said that from around that time, industrialization and civilization progressed rapidly, and abnormal weather began to occur frequently. However, the cause of the increase is not only due to the increase in abnormal weather itself, but also due to the increase.communicationDue to the development and development of technology, many extreme weather events have been reported.populationIncreasepoverty,BuildingIncreased risk of disasters caused by abnormal weather due to the longevity ofknowledgeThe spread ofMeteorologyIs also a factor. Changes in the activity of the sun also have a huge impact on the Earth's climate.
Climate modelAccording to estimates, extreme weather events will increase in the next few decades to hundreds of years due to global warming. But,Ice ageThere is also a study that the temperature difference between low latitude and high latitude was large, and there were more abnormal weather than at present.
TypicallyPaleoclimatologyAccording to the report, the temperature difference between the polar regions and the equator becomes smaller during the global warm season and the meteorological phenomenon becomes milder, while the temperature difference becomes larger and the meteorological phenomenon becomes more severe during the cold season. However, warm and cold seasons often occur locally, in which case exceptions occur. However, the estimation of the severity of meteorological phenomena is not yet accurate, and there are some disagreements.
In addition, there is a tendency to investigate the causes (artificial factors, especially the relevance of global warming) of each abnormal weather such as warm winters and intense heat, local thunderstorms and gusts, and strong typhoons. Westerly bias, wide-area temperature and seawater temperature bias, El Nino, etc.Atmospheric fluctuationCan be cited as an indirect factor, but estimating whether it is caused by global warming is a matter of meteorology.カ オ スThere is a very difficult part in terms of sex. Few can clearly say that it is related to global warming, and most of them are only "I don't know."
on the other hand,Heat island phenomenon,DesertificationThe effects on the weather are relatively clear, and it can be presumed to be the cause of abnormal weather. It should be noted that2015 Was the year when the world's average temperature reached a record high.
Extreme weather observations and statistics
Global Extreme Weather Monitoring Bulletin
Every Wednesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency announces the status of abnormal weather and meteorological disasters in the world that occurred in the week up to the previous day.
The definition of extreme weather in this is
- Abnormally high / low temperature The difference from the average weekly average temperature is more than 1 times the standard deviation in the same month.
- Unusually heavy rainfall Weekly rainfall exceeds normal monthly rainfall
- Abnormal light rainfall The rainfall during the 30 days before was the lowest between 1971 and 2000 (excluding some dry areas).
- Tropical cyclone
- Other weather disasters
It has become.
Extreme weather report
The Japan Meteorological Agency has compiled an abnormal weather report every five years since 1974. The content is a summary of recent weather observations and future forecasts, taking into account the long-term climate of Japan and the world.
Response and preparation for abnormal weather
Responses to abnormal weather are almost the same as responses to "severe weather," "stormy weather," and "bad weather," and are often equated. It is often done collectively as a response to so-called meteorological disasters.
In companies and organizationsRisk management,Risk assessmentBy weather disasterriskTo reduce. In anticipation of damage caused by weather disastersWeather derivativesThere is also a financial derivative product called.
However, there is a strong view that "abnormal weather" can increase in the future due to global warming, etc., and preparations are being made for "increased abnormal weather" and "increased risk of abnormal weather".Central disaster prevention conferenceIn many cases, measures are taken by field, such as the "Special Investigation Committee on Large-Scale Flood Control".
- Specialized study group on large-scale flood control Cabinet Office Disaster Prevention Information Central Disaster Prevention Council
- Abnormal weather? Weather Q & A Is it Morita's weather?
- Extreme weather risk map Heavy rain is increasing Japanese Meteorological Agency
- Japan Meteorological Agency Global Extreme Weather Monitoring Bulletin
- Japan Meteorological Agency Extreme Weather Report 2005
- Extreme weather risk map Japanese Meteorological Agency
- ^ http://www.gizmodo.jp/2016/01/2015_hottestyear.html 2015 was the hottest year on record
Scientists attribute extreme weather to man-made climate change. Researchers have for the first time attributed recent floods, droughts and heatwaves, to human-induced climate change. July 10 2012 The Guardian
- Hansen, J (2000). “Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97 (18): 9875–80. bibcode: 2000PNAS ... 97.9875H. two:10.1073 / pnas.170278997. PMC 27611. PMID 10944197.
- Extremely Bad Weather: Studies start linking climate change to current events November 17, 2012; Vol.182 # 10 Science News
- Climate change goes to extremes: Some recent weird weather tied to warming December 13, 2012 Science News
- Study Indicates a Greater Threat of Extreme Weather April 26, 2012 The New York Times
- Hansen, J .; Sato, M .; Ruedy, R. (2012). “Perception of climate change”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (37): E2415–E2423. two:10.1073 / pnas.1205276109. ISSN 0027-8424 .