US trade deficit, down 6% in April to $ 6.2 billion exports record high
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Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said he expects the trade balance to continue to contribute to GDP in the third quarter. It is suggested that export demand will be hit over a period of time,” he said, adding that the contribution of the trade balance will not last.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit fell XNUMX% to XNUMX billion in June, the U.S. Department of Commerce said on Thursday. → Continue reading
Wikipedia related words
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Balance of payments statistics(Kokusai Shutokei,British: balance of payments) Means for a certain period of timeCountryAnd similar areas to the outside worldEconomytransaction(GoodsとServicesandincomeTrading ・External assets-liabilitiesTransactions related to increase / decrease / transfer transactions)statisticsIs.Balance of payments statistics are available in most countries and regions of the world.United Nations OfInternational Monetary FundIt is prepared in accordance with the (Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual; BPM) formulated by the (IMF), and the situation in each country can be compared.
JapanIn, the statistics are2013Until the 1993th edition published in 5 (BPM5)2014th edition (BPM2008) published from 6 to 6Compliant withMinistry of FinanceInternational BureauForeign Exchange Market Division andBank of JapanBalance of Payments Division, International BureauCreated by.
Definitions and basic principles
Balance of paymentsProfit and lossNot the methodIncome and expenditureIt is recorded by the method. Corporate accountingIf you replace it withProfit and loss statementnot,Cash Flow StatementA description method similar to is adopted. bookkeepingUnlike general profit and loss accounting, it is a balance accounting, so the credit is on the left and the debit is on the right.Cash flow statementIt can be said that it is the same as the method of creating.
In the same statisticsbookkeepingSimilar toDuplex accountingThe method is adopted.That is, whenever a transaction is recordedCreditとDebitThe same amount is recorded in.Statistically, the credit is positive and the debit is negative.Debit for bookkeepingAssetincrease of·liabilitiesDecreaseExpenseSpending, crediting debt increase, asset decrease,incomeHowever, in the case of the balance of payments, a similar accounting method is adopted.
Balance of payments statisticsFinancial statementsIn the placeProfit and loss statementTherefore, the current account deficit does not mean that there is a "loss".In other words, the balance of payments is incompatible with the concept of profit and loss accounts, and surplus (deficit) only means excess (under)..
Balance of Payments Manual
Each country is gradually shifting from the BPM5 method to the BPM6 method.
With the BPM6 compliant method, roughlyCurrent account balance(Current account) ・Balance of capital transfer, etc.(Capital account) ・Financial balanceIt is divided into three (financial account) and can be written by the following identity.The balance of capital transfer is the provision of fixed assets without receipt of consideration, debt exemption, acquisition and disposal of non-production and non-financial assets, etc..
Current balance + Balance of capital transfer + Error omission = Financial balance
The current account balance is decomposed as follows.Primary income balance(Primary income) refers to interest, dividends, etc. generated from foreign financial receivables and debts, and is composed of direct investment income, securities investment income, and other investment income..Secondary income balance(Secondary income) is the provision of unpaid assets between residents and non-residents (public-private grant aid, donations, gifts)..
Current Account = Trade / Service Balance + Primary Income Balance + Secondary Income Balance Trade / Service Balance = Trade Balance + Service Balance Trade Balance = Export-Import
The primary income balance is decomposed as follows.Direct investment income(Direct investment) refers to dividends, interest, etc. between the parent company and the subsidiary..Securities investment income(Portfolio investment) refers to stock dividends and bond interest.Other investment income(Other investment) is interest on loans, borrowings, deposits, etc..
Primary income balance = Employer compensation + Investment income + Other primary income Investment income = Direct investment income + Securities investment income + Other investment income
The financial balance is decomposed as follows.
Financial balance = direct investment + securities investment + financial derivatives + other investments + foreign currency reserves
Changes from BPM5
- Rearrangement of main items
- The investment balance and the increase / decrease in foreign currency reserves have been integrated into the financial balance.
- The other capital balance in the capital balance has become a major item along with the current balance and the financial balance as the balance of capital transfer.
- The income balance has been renamed to the primary income balance, and the current transfer balance has been renamed to the secondary income balance.
- "Processing of goods" and "repair of goods", which were treated as a trade balance, are now treated as a service balance from the idea that ownership is not transferred.
- "Intermediary trade," which was treated as a service balance, is now treated as a trade balance.
- Change of notation
- In the financial balance, the increase in assets and liabilities will be positive, and the decrease in assets and liabilities will be negative.
- For example, foreign direct investment in Japan will be positive as before, but foreign direct investment by Japanese companies will also be positive rather than negative.
- Regarding the increase / decrease in foreign currency reserves, which has become an item in the financial balance, the positive and negative notations have been reversed.Along with this, the calculation method of the total value of the entire financial balance is changed from "asset + liability" to "asset-liability".
- In the financial balance, the increase in assets and liabilities will be positive, and the decrease in assets and liabilities will be negative.
resourceTo importOutputでForeign currencyMust be wonThe idea was that international capital movements were severely restricted under the fixed exchange rate system.Nixon shockIt was right in the previous era,Floating exchange rateNot true below.
Economic welfareThere is a view that (real consumption level) is determined by per capita productivity, and that the surplus and deficit of the trade balance have nothing to do with it.According to this, it is the terms of trade, not exports, that are important to the economy of the country.And the standard of living of economic welfare is determined by the productivity of the domestic sector, not the export sector..
If net exports increase, it will be a factor to increase GDP, and if net exports decrease, it will be a factor to suppress GDP expansion.However, this is only from the perspective of the production side, and conversely, from the perspective of the demand side, exports can be used domestically but are outflows overseas, and imports mean that what is consumed domestically comes in from overseas. There is a good side.
If the country's net exports are in the red, it means that the same amount was covered by foreign imports (foreign GDP), and it is not included in the country's GDP as a negative value.
The trade and current account surpluses indicate that exports outnumber imports.A continuous deficit in the balance has nothing to do with the shackles of economic growth, and imports increase as the economy improves, so it is even sound to have a trade deficit...A reduction in the trade deficit may increase jobs, but in the long run the trade deficit and the unemployment rate have little to do with each other.However, there is a cost to the trade deficit (a method of using foreign savings to achieve economic growth)...Individual agents who have borrowed foreign capital must make a profit in the future and repay in the borrowed currency.It only comes from the expansion of GDP with the investment made by borrowing...Therefore, some capital transactions conducted by individual economic agents, both domestically and internationally, cannot be repaid.For example, an example of economic growth failure due to foreign borrowing is the cumulative debt problem of South American countries from the late 1970s to the early 1980s..
An increase in the trade surplus is positive for the economy, but when considering trade and the economy, it is necessary to look at it from various perspectives, and it does not necessarily mean that exports must exceed imports...In addition, the movement of the current account balance is basically unrelated to economic variables (fiscal balance, economic growth rate, etc.), and the current account deficit does not directly lead to the depression..
Three-sided equivalence principle and savings-investment balance
The principle that the income earned by the entire country's economy through economic activities will eventually flow out of the country with the surplus funds (capital) used for investment and consumption (Savings investment balance) Is.
GDPCurrent account balance according to the definition of (GDP)Can be expressed by the following equilibrium equation.
- However,Is the gross domestic product,Consume,Represents each investment.
This formula is for domestic demand (domestic demand) Is Gross National Product (), The right side will be negative and the left side (current balance) will be in the red, and vice versa (when the domestic demand is lower than the gross domestic product), the current balance will be in the black. ..
Savings (gross domestic product minus consumption)) So
Therefore, the above equation can be rewritten as follows.
That is, if domestic investment exceeds savings, the current account will be in the red, and if savings exceed investment, the current account will be in the black.Insufficient domestic demand (savings investment difference)Increases), there is a correlation that external demand (trade balance surplus) increases...In other words, when the domestic economy is in recession, the trade surplus tends to increase...The trade surplus is large due to the recession, and the large trade surplus does not mean that it will be rich.The reason for this is that domestically produced products are not consumed or invested domestically.The trade surplus increases because domestic supply exceeds domestic demand and exports the rest.If it is consumed domestically, it will not be in the black.
The same equation can also be rewritten as the following equation.
- However,Exports,Is an importIs government spending,Represents tax revenue, respectively.
The same amount as the current account surplus (trade balance surplus + government budget deficit) will be generated.
The savings-investment balance formula is an equilibrium formula, and in reality, it fluctuates because the level of gross domestic product, exchange rate, interest rate, etc. affect the level of savings and investment. 1980sUS-Japan trade frictionIn the discussion about, the high savings rate of Japan is the cause of the current account surplus of Japan, while the low savings rate of the United States and the high personal consumption and government expenditure (government budget deficit) are the current account deficit of the United States. There was a debate about whether it was the cause.
Real interest rateWhen the price falls (rises), it causes the depreciation (depreciation) of the domestic currency, and the progress of the depreciation (increase) initially tries to make the cyclical trade balance deficit (surplus), but after a certain period of time, it becomes surplus (deficit). Rise (fall) toward (fall)J-curve effect)..On the other hand, there is no relationship between the current account or trade balance and the real exchange rate..
Development stage theory
The theory that the balance of payments trend changes with the development stage of the economy is called the development stage theory..
A country's balance of payments goes through the following cycle.. "Mature" and "immature" are, of course, relative to other countries and do not mean an absolute level.
- Immature net debtor country
- The trade balance is in the red due to the underdeveloped industry, and the capital balance is in the black due to the introduction of foreign capital due to lack of capital.In addition, the investment balance will be in the red.
- Mature net debtor country
- Comparative advantageAlthough the industry (export industry) develops and the trade balance becomes profitable, the current account balance also becomes a deficit as a result of the income balance deficit due to the remaining external debt.
- Net debt repayment country
- The trade balance surplus expands and the current account surplus turns into a surplus.Net external debt begins to decline.As a result, the capital balance will be in the black.
- Immature net creditors
- Net external debt continues to decline, then becomes a creditor country, and the income balance becomes profitable.
- Mature net creditor country
- The trade balance will turn into a deficit, but the current account will be in the black because the income balance is in the black with the income from foreign receivables so far.
- Country withdrawing net debt
- As the trade deficit expands, the current account deficit will turn into a deficit.At the same time, net external receivables will decrease.
The development stage theory only considers ultra-long-term changes, and is not a method that should be used when tracking changes in the current account balance on a yearly basis.In addition, if the income balance surplus expands, the economic scale of a country will increase.GDPIncluded rather than (GDP)Gross national incomeThere is debate that (GNI) is more appropriate as an economic policy goal..
Balance of payments ceiling
in Japan,Second World WarFrom the later resumption of tradeHigh growth periodOverBalance of payments ceilingWas bound by a constraint called. Economic expansionIn Japan, domestic demand such as capital investment and consumption became strong, and it was favorable.BusinessIf this continues, imports will increase and the current account balance will be in the red.Japan at that time was 360 yen /DollarIt has a fixed exchange rate system, and if the current account deficit continues, foreign currency reserves will decrease.If the deficit continues, there is a high possibility that foreign currency reserves will be exhausted and the yen will not be able to exchange for other currencies.In other words, the current account deficit cannot be left in order to maintain a fixed exchange rate.For these reasons, economic adjustment measures such as monetary tightening were taken to prevent a decrease in foreign currency reserves, which caused capital investment and inventory investment to stagnate.RecessionTurned to.If the domestic economy continued to boom, imports would increase and foreign currency reserves would run out, forcing the economy to tighten and retreat.At that time, Japan's current account balance-maintaining operation was a choice not to introduce foreign capital, and was wary of being controlled by foreign capital.
Balance of payments trends
The 2006-2008 average global direct investment acceptance has expanded more than 1990 times the 1992-10 average..In particular, it has continued to expand rapidly since 2001.Lehman shockAlthough it temporarily decreased due to the influence of, it has continued to expand rapidly since then..
Japan's balance of payments and economic policy
Japan has already transitioned to a floating exchange rate system as of February 1973.Therefore, as of 2000, the capital balance is inevitably in the red, and the current account surplus is reinvested overseas as a capital deficit (securities investment / direct investment)... As of 2019, Japan's current account balance is such that the primary income balance (investment income) accounts for most of the surplus, and investment from countries that earn from trade (especially overseas)Direct investment) Has changed to a country that earns money.
- Trade balance: Second in the early 1980sOil shockLastly, it went into the red due to the influence of the above, and after that it continued to expand the surplus until 2007..
- Service balance: A small deficit continued, but as of 2019, it is almost zero.
- Primary income balance (investment income): The trade balance surplus has accumulated and the holding of foreign receivables is at a high level, so the surplus continues. As of 2019, direct investment income (dividends, interest, etc. between the parent company and subsidiaries) continues to increase.
In 2004, the increase and decrease in foreign currency reserves recorded a large surplus, but large-scale yen sales under the theme of preventing yen appreciation.DollarbuyinterventionBy doing.The reason for the appreciation of the yen was the widening of the expected real interest rate differential, and of course, the appreciation of the yen could not be suppressed by foreign exchange intervention.In fact, after thatmonetary easingThe appreciation of the yen was eased by this.Detail isYen exchange rateSee.
As of 2014, although it has been increasing, inward direct investment (direct investment by overseas companies in Japanese companies) has remained below 5% of GDP for a long period of time...America (2013% in 29.4)United KingdomThis is a low level compared to (2013% in 63.3)..In other words, in JapanForeign-affiliated companiesMeans that the scale is small.
In 1986Yasuhiro NakasoneIs a private advisory body,Maekawa ReportJapan proposed that it would contribute to the world by expanding domestic demand and promoting the conversion to a major importing country.Ryutaro Komiya harshly criticizes this case.It was so wrong that it was not achieved, of course..
January 2003Junichiro KoizumiHas announced its goal of doubling foreign direct investment in Japan in five years, and was formulated in March of the same year... In 2008政府Has announced a policy to double the balance of direct investment in Japan to 2010% of GDP by 5..
Since 2004, the Ministry of Finance has stated that "a large number of issues are expected.Japanese Government BondWe have started an investment briefing session for Japanese government bonds for foreign investors with the intention of having foreign investors buy them.As a result of these activities, the holding rate of Japanese government bonds by foreign investors increased from 2004% in December 12 to 4.2% in March 2007..
On March 2014, 3, the Ministry of Finance was its advisory body.Financial system councilAt the fiscal system subcommittee of Japan, he pointed out that the current account balance may turn into a deficit throughout the year against the backdrop of the expansion of the trade deficit, and the budget deficit and the trade deficitTwin deficitExpressing concerns about the fallacy of mercantilism..The government said that it would establish a new system by the end of the same year and prepare a system for the goal of doubling the balance of direct investment in Japan to 2020 trillion yen in 35..
At the House of Councilors Budget Committee on March 2014, 3Amari AkiraMinister for Economic Recovery"When the current account goes into the red, it's a danger signal. You have to rely on foreign countries for domestic financial funds. It affects the valuation of government bonds." ・ "There is no doubt that the current account should be in the black. ."It has said.
Discussion on balance of payments
Related to balance of paymentsInternational competitivenessThe term is manyeconomistHas been pointed out as an error.
"The establishment of a trade deficit means that Japan cannot earn by trade, so the trade deficit is a major problem that is a turning point in the Japanese economy. Japan earns by investment rather than by trade." It has become an investment-oriented country. It can be said that the expansion of Japan's income balance shows the maturity of the economy. ".. Also,Cabinet Office OfEconomic and Fiscal Advisory CouncilAlthough Japan's trade balance will be in the red in 2030,East AsiaTo countriesDirect investmentIt is expected that the income balance surplus will expand due to the profits from.
In short, mercantilism is a trade surplus supremacy.Especially under the floating exchange rate system, it is also a capital deficit principle.Many people consider the current account deficit as a problem, but even if the economy deteriorates, it will remain in the black...In other words, there is also the perspective that maximizing the trade surplus will maximize the cooling of domestic demand.Temporarily, individual countriesEconomic agentEven if you replace it with (household, company, government), the current account balance has nothing to do with the concept of profit and loss...When the economy improves, the future of the country's economy is expected and investment increases, so the current account balance goes into the red... For exampleFirst Abe CabinetIn Japan after that,AbenomicsThe reason for the deficit in the trade balance is the increase in demand for product imports due to the activation of domestic economic activities and the expansion of domestic demand.industry OfHollowing out,Great East Japan EarthquakeLaterNuclear policyRelated to the conversion ofThermal power generationusefuelIs not a surge in imports.
It has also been pointed out that sluggish imports of goods and purchases of services do not enjoy the benefits of international trade.Trade is not competition, but a mutually beneficial exchange, and the purpose of trade is imports, not exports... As already revealed in 1776, there is also the view that consumption is the sole purpose of all production...Other countries see the market as closed or unattractive..
The surplus and deficit in the current account and trade balance mean excess and under, respectively. To be precise, "the trade balance (current account) has turned into the surplus" and "the trade deficit (current account deficit) has expanded (reduced)." It becomes an expression such as "done."
savings investmentCountries that exceed the current balance of payments have the same amount (current balance surplus + government budget deficit), which means that they are investing capital abroad by the amount of the current account surplus.is this,Global imbalanceCalled (savings and investment imbalance), it is considered as one of the factors that create cross-border capital movements... For exampleAmericaThe current account deficit since 1982 isJapan-Chugoku-East AsiaIn the current account surplus of each countryFinanceHas been.
Current account and trade balancebalancedThe idea of having to do is called (bilateralism),MacroeconomicsIs considered a rudimentary mistake in..The current account and trade balance imbalances are merely the result of actions (savings-investment balance) selected by the economic agents that make up each country as being most advantageous, and even if they are sustainable or disadvantageous, they are disadvantageous. Not healthy.
There is an opinion that it will be a problem if the current account deficit continues to "forever".This is because the current account deficit reduces the country's external assets.However, Japan's net external assets are 300 trillion yen, so even if the current account deficit is 5 trillion yen, it will take 60 years to become a net debtor. Even a current account deficit of 10 trillion yen is 30 years..
The following points are pointed out as errors.
- It confuses external assets (gross) with net external assets (net).
- Net external assets will decrease due to the current account deficit, but external assets will not decrease.Under the floating exchange rate system, a capital balance surplus of the same amount as the current account deficit is generated, and investment capital is only collected from abroad.
- It confuses the state with the government when it comes to net foreign assets.
- Certainly, the current account balance shows changes in the balance of net foreign assets in the home country...However, with its insolvencypanicIs irrelevant.
- It is not uncommon for a country to continue its economic growth over a long or ultra-long term with its net foreign assets and current account deficit.For exampleCanadaHas had a current account deficit in most years for over 100 years,economic growthHas continued.
In addition, there is a view that an increase in investment from outside Japan will lead to a deterioration in Japan's income balance through an increase in dividend payments.According to this, the wealth accumulated by Japan will flow overseas, the yen will depreciate in the foreign exchange market, the vitality of the Japanese economy will eventually be lost, and the economic activities of the people will become unstable. Absent..When the balance of payments becomes negative, the income received by the people decreases, and due to reasons such as the expansion of the trade deficit.Gross national incomeIt is more likely that personal income will decline as (GNI) enters a declining phase.If GNI continues to decline in the medium to long term, it will not be possible to continue to withdraw savings.As a result, the opinion is that spending will be cut down and living standards will fall..
It has been pointed out that the following points are incorrect.
- A surplus in the capital balance means that investment money is collected in the home country, which means that the demand for the home currency is increasing.
- The capital invested overseas by one's own country is not offset by the surplus in the capital balance and disappears.
- There is no relationship between the trending trade balance and the real exchange rate.
- In fact, in Japan, which is under a floating exchange rate system, Abenomics since the Second Abe Cabinet has caused the trade balance to become deficit (not the income balance to become deficit) and the capital balance to become profitable on both sides..
Even in modern times, for tradeImport barrierThe idea of "earning" a trade surplusProtectionist).Regarding this, it is said that such a theory does not hold under the floating exchange rate system.Even if you can create a trade surpluscurrencyTo be high, it is artificially lost.In the floating exchange rate system,Trade barriersThe result of the change is trendingTerms of tradeIt does not affect the trade balance because it is offset by changes in the exchange rate.The theory of market closure in the current account and trade balance is irrelevant..
In addition, even if protectionist trade (mercantilism policy) is carried out after introducing a fixed exchange rate system,Adam SmithAs proved by, economic development (Labor productivityDoes not lead to (rise).
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- Direct investment
- Savings investment balance
- trade friction
- External assets and liabilities balance
- Twin deficit --Financial problems in the United States.It refers to two problems: the trade deficit and the budget deficit.