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🌏 | US Fed rate hike could cause growth rate to fall below 2% = SF Fed Governor


US Fed rate hike could cause growth rate below 2% = SF Fed Governor

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"We expect the unemployment rate to rise slightly, but it's not something that can be seen as a recession," he said in an interview with LinkedIn.

[Reuters] -Daily Governor of the US San Francisco District Fed announced on the XNUMXth that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) ... → Continue reading


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    unemployment(Shitsugyou,British: unemployment) IsOccupationLosing (work), andThe labor OfwillAlso能力It refers to a state in which you cannot get a job even though there are some. In particular, it refers to the state without workUnemployed(Mushouku) refers to the state of the person who is looking for a job for employment, and refers to the person in such a stateUnemployedSay (Shitsugyosha).

    Labor force populationThe ratio of the number of unemployed toUnemployment rateSay.Full employment(Full employment) refers to the state of maximizing the use of labor, technology, land, capital and other factors of production to produce maximum sustainable production capacity.[3], It does not mean that there is no unemployed person, but that it includes the existence of a certain amount of frictional unemployment.[4].

    International Labor OrganizationAccording to the (ILO), as of 2018, 1 million people worldwide (reported worldwide)Labor force population5%) were unemployed[5].

    15-24 years oldLabor force populationUnemployed inYouth unemployedGood,JapanExcept for someNordic OfWelfare stateEven the youth unemployment rate does not drop from 20%OECDHas become a big issue in member countries[6][7].

    Unemployment classification and theory

    For unemploymentVoluntary unemployment,Frictional unemployment,Involuntary unemploymentThere are three modes[8].. This classification isJohn Maynard KeynesWas made by[9][10].

    Voluntary unemployment
    It exists regardless of whether the economy is good or bad (Natural unemployment rate[8].. Choosing unemployment on your own initiative, or unemploying on your own initiative in search of better working conditions.
    Frictional unemployment
    Exists regardless of whether the economy is good or bad (natural unemployment rate)[8].. See below.
    Involuntary unemployment
    Unemployment (Complete unemployment rate)[8].. currentwageYou want to get a job, but you are unemployed in a way you don't want.

    Unemployed = Voluntary unemployed + frictional unemployed + involuntary unemployed[11].

    Potential growth rateBut,Actual economic growth rateIt is said that "involuntary unemployment" will disappear when it becomes equal to[12].

    Classification of unemployment factors

    By unemployment factor,Lack of demand unemployment,Frictional unemployment,Structural unemploymentCan be classified into three types[13][14].

    Lack of demand unemployment
    Labor due to economic fluctuations (circulation)need(employmentUnemployment caused by a decrease in the number of recipients), also called cyclical unemployment.Real business cycle theoryIs an example.
    Frictional unemployment
    Career changeOr newFinding employmentWhen you doCompanyIt takes time for both job seekers to find each other because the information of each other is incomplete.WorkerUnemployment caused by the fact that it takes time to move between regions.
    Structural unemployment
    Labor marketDespite the balance between supply and demand inHuman resourcesJob huntingUnemployment caused by a mismatch in the characteristics (vocational ability, age, etc.) of a person.

    Involuntary unemployment

    Neoclassical economics,MonetaristIn the view ofMarket economyFunctioning will match the supply and demand of workers, and all job seekers will be able to get jobs.[15]. However,Keynesian economicsPointed out that the market mechanism does not work well in the short term, and that involuntary unemployment will occur. Involuntary unemployment was discovered by Keynes, and there is disagreement between Keynes' economic position and Neoclassical position as to whether to recognize the existence of involuntary unemployment.

    Labor marketThen,HouseholdSupply labor and companies demand labor[16]. Real employment and wages are determined when labor supply and demand match[16]. In the labor market, when wages are high, companies reduce employment and workers increase supply[17].Neoclassical economicsSupposes that there is no involuntary unemployment because wages are determined to match the supply and demand of labor.[17].. Decline in nominal wages occurs when the supply of labor exceeds demand[17].

    this isNeoclassicalHowever, it is possible to eliminate all unsold items by freely expanding and contracting prices.Say's LawAssuming[18]The reason is that unemployed people can find jobs by offering lower wages than the currently employed workers. The only reason why unemployment is not resolved by the fall in wage prices is because of the workers' choice not to work below that wage.

    In contrast, John Maynard KeynesMacroeconomicsIt is,Effective demandLack of money was considered the reason for unemployment[19].Keynesian economicsSays, "Since wages are rigid, supply and demand will not match."[20]. In Keynesian economics, in the labor marketDownward wage rigidityThere is unemployment[21]. Also, prices are rigid in the goods and services market, and prices are not adjusted instantly.[21]. Prices and wages are adjusted only slowly in the short term[21]. Keynesian economics wage/price rigidity is a short-term assumption, and wages/price will be adjusted over the years.[22]. However, in the downward rigidity of the interest rate, the Keynesian recession will continue for the medium term (about 10 years) instead of the short term.[22].

    Keynes presents the principle of effective demand opposite to Say's law, saying that the demand for products of society as a whole determines the amount of employment.[23],Incomplete employmentRecognize the possibility of equilibrium with.Involuntary unemployment caused by the lack of effective demand at that time must be eliminated by increasing aggregate demand.

    Various factors such as the relative wage hypothesis, the efficiency wage hypothesis, and the insider/outsider hypothesis are considered as factors that explain the downward rigidity of nominal wages (for details,Labor economicsSee).

    Circular unemployment

    Cyclical, also known as Keynesian unemployment, is sufficient to provide work to anyone who wants to work.Total demandOccurs when there is no.As a result of lower demand for many goods and services and lower production requirements, fewer workers are needed, but wages are downwardly rigid and do not fall to equilibrium levels, resulting in unemployment. To do[24].

    Unemployment under full employment

    The ratio of the number of people who are unemployed due to structural or frictional reasons to the working populationNatural unemployment rate(Inflation Unaccelerated unemployment rate, NAIRU for short)[25].. Natural unemployment (one of its interpretations) is the unemployment rate when the economy is in equilibrium.

    The government can adjust the unemployment rate through public policy, but if the unemployment rate is below the natural unemployment rate, inflation will occur. Therefore, the only unemployment that can be reduced by policy without causing inflation is the cyclical unemployment part.

    In addition, George AkarovPoint out that the level of natural unemployment depends on inflation.[26][27][28].. According to these studies, the level of the natural unemployment rate rises as the inflation rate decreases from a certain threshold. Thus, in an economy with very low or deflationary inflation, if a policy is adopted to reduce the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate will temporarily fall below the natural unemployment rate, accelerating inflation. As the level rises, the level of the natural unemployment rate declines, so if the unemployment rate becomes higher than the natural unemployment rate, inflation will stop accelerating. This also shows the risk of estimating the scale of cyclical unemployment by just looking at the level of the unemployment rate and judging the size of the output gap, without taking into consideration the inflation rate and other factors.

    The unemployment rate is the total output (realGDP) And the potential output as a percentage (Output gap,GDP gap) Is known to be involved.

    • Output gap = 100 × (total output-potential output)/potential output (%)

    If the output gap is negative, the unemployment rate is higher than the natural unemployment rate because the resources are not fully utilized. On the contrary, if positive, the unemployment rate will be lower than the natural unemployment rate. In addition, if the output gap is positiveInflation gapAnd the negative caseRecession gapThat.

    Employment contracts are the reason why the output gap does not reach zero in the short term. Even if the economy deteriorates, companies will not reduce employee salaries in the short term due to contracts. Therefore, the salary will be higher than the level at which full employment is achieved, and the number of unemployed will increase, resulting in an output gap.

    From historical data, it is estimated that the output gap and the unemployment rate have the following relationship (Okun's Law):

    • Unemployment rate = Natural unemployment rate-0.5 Output gap (%)

    Thus, the economy depends on real GDP, while the unemployment rate depends on the output gap. Therefore, even if the economy (real GDP) rises, if the rate of increase is slower than that of the potential output, "recovering an economy without employment" (Jobless recovery) Happens.

    Finally, let's see what happens if we keep trying to keep the unemployment rate below the natural unemployment rate. Inflation of 2%, for example, lowers the unemployment rate below the natural unemployment rate. But after a while, the public will act with a 2% inflation rate in mind. Therefore, the unemployment rate rises again. To get the unemployment rate down again, we need to get higher inflation. However, this high inflation rate will also be factored into the forecast, and the unemployment rate will rise again. Thus, in order to keep the unemployment rate below the natural unemployment rate, inflation must continue to be accelerated.

    If the nominal wage is downwardly rigid, it is necessary to increase prices to increase labor demand, but once full employment is achieved due to the increase in labor demand, prices will rise even if demand increases beyond that. Will just do[29].

    Hidden unemployment

    Official statistics often underestimate the unemployment rate by not considering hidden unemployment (potential unemployment).[30][31]..Hidden unemployment is potential unemployment that is not reflected in official unemployment statistics by statistical methods.In many countries, people who do not have a job but are actively looking for a job (Unemployed) And only those who are eligible for social security benefits are counted as unemployed.Unwillingness to workAnd those who participate in government vocational training programs are not officially counted as unemployed, even if they are unemployed.

    またIncomplete employmentPart-timers who can work less than the desired time, called underemployed, and people who do work that does not make full use of their abilities (underemployed)Overqualification) Is not included in the statistics.In addition, those who have reached productive age but are currently educated full-time are generally not considered unemployed in government statistics.In traditional indigenous societies that make a living by collecting, hunting, livelihooding and farming in the wilderness, they may or may not be counted as unemployed.

    Other types of unemployment

    The following unemployment can be considered.

    • Seasonal unemployment-Unemployment caused by seasonal factors[32].
    • Temporary unemployment-Unemployed during the off-season of farmers.
    • Industrial Reserve-Needed as a wage restraint for capitalistsRelative overpopulation.
    • Technical unemployment-Unemployment caused by mechanization/automation that does not require special ability[33].


    中 世Christendom (=CatholicIn the world of), poverty is said to be "to meet the heart of God," and reaching out to such a person isGood deedMet.Reformation(=ProtestantismIs a completely different view, and "laziness and greed are unforgivable sins,"BeggingDismissed as "cause of laziness",The labor"Sacredobligation". The epidemic of protestantism has transformed the line of sight to the poor, spreading the view that it "represents being abandoned by God" and shutting out the city.Poor people Thewilderness,森林Do you live inVagrantBecomeRiotCame to wake up.

    United KingdomThen.1531According to the royal decree, poor people are classified into "people who cannot work due to illness" and "people who cannot work because of idleness".BeggingWith permission, the latterWhipping OfPunishmentWas decided to be added.1536Is codified inPoor lawWhile providing food and food to the incapacitated poor,Healthy personToForced laborWas imposed.Industrial revolutionAccelerates18st centuryUntil then, the "laziness" of a healthy person was treated as a sin in relation to God,PoorhouseThe reality of刑 務 所It was that.18st centurySince then, poverty-stricken activities that have departed from Christian values ​​have spread.Gilbert methodAnd the establishment ofSpeenhamland systemWas established in the United Kingdom, and the values ​​for poverty and unemployment have finally changed (Poor lawreference).

    Industrial revolutionSince then, the proportion of wage laborers has increased, and unemployment is serious.社会 問題It was decided to be treated as.19st centuryIn England金融Capital investmentFrom the circulation of, almost every 10 yearspanicThere was a cycle in which the unemployment rate rose to nearly 10% each time.

    20st centuryUpon entering, this circulation gradually collapses,1929Occurred inWorld DepressionSince then, unemployment has increased sharply in each country.The United States of AmericaIn (US), the temporary unemployment rate reached 25% and was openly shouted. In addition, unemployment at this timeNew Deal PolicyIt temporarily decreased due to, but increased again when the policy receded,Second World WarBy largeMunitionsIt was not resolved until it occurred.

    After the warBretton Woods systemUnderWestern countriesAchieved miraculous high growth. By stateEconomic policyWith significant intervention inFull employmentWas almost achieved.the 1970sOnce you enter, the increase in nominal wageOil shockThe outbreak hurt supply structures and increased unemployment under inflation (Stagflation).

    the 1980sWhen I enter, I try to escape from the recessionNeoliberalismEconomic policy (Reganomics,Thatcherism,Rogernomics, Etc. were introduced, and the economic growth rate increased in countries where the labor market was liquidized, but it was aimed at controlling the inflation rate at the same time.Financial PolicyWas adopted and the unemployment rate rose significantly.

    the 1990sThe United States and the United Kingdom escaped from structural high unemployment,Continental EuropeCountries have settled on high unemployment. Also, in Japan, where the unemployment rate was lower than in Europe and the United States,Bubble economyAfter the collapseLong recessionUnemployment becomes apparent due to社会 問題It became.

    2009Before and afterWorld financial crisishas reached a peak and high unemployment rates have been recorded around the world.

    2020ToNew coronavirusIn each country due to the spread ofCurfewAnd urbanLockdownThe unemployment rate rose sharply as a result of the significant decline in economic activity.US Unemployment Rate 2020% in April 4[34], GDP recorded -32.9% in the second quarter[35].As a result, the number of new unemployed people also increased. February 2020 to April 2 in the United StatesRecessionrecognized as term[36].After that, from April 2020, the U.S. will recover rapidly, and the unemployment rate in July 4 will be 2022%, a historically low level (7% was reached in 3.5 and in 3.5 before that).[37]) Became[38].


    It is a measure of unemploymentUnemployment rate(Unemployment rate) isLabor force populationDefined as a percentage of the number of unemployed to.For those who have given up looking for a jobUnwillingness to work Called (discouraged worker).

    International Labor OrganizationUnemployed workers, as defined by, are those who are not currently working, but have the will and ability to work to earn a salary, are currently able to work, and are actively looking for a job.[39].

    Those who are actively looking for a job are those who have contacted their employer, interviewed, contacted a employment agency, sent a resume, submitted application documents, inquired about job advertisements, etc. within the past 4 weeks. Those who are making efforts to actively seek employment by the method.If you don't make inquiries just by looking at job advertisements, you are not considered to be actively looking for a job.Official statistics on unemployment may not be accurate, as not all unemployed are known by government agencies.[40].

    米 国

    Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor(BLS) defines six alternative indicators U6 to U1 that measure the unemployment rate as well as different aspects of unemployment.[41].

    • U1: Percentage of labor unemployed for more than 15 weeks[42].
    • U2: Unemployment orpart timePercentage of the labor force whose contract has expired.
    • U3: By ILO definitionOfficial unemployment rateThat is, if you are unemployed and are actively looking for a job within the last 4 weeks[43]
    • U4: To U3Unwillingness to workIs added.That is, those who think that they do not have a job due to the current economic situation and stop looking for a job.
    • U5: U4 plus "marginally attached workers", "loosely attached workers," who want to work but haven't been looking for a job these days.
    • U6: U5 wants full-time employment, but for financial reasonspart timeWorking inIncomplete employmentThe one with the person added.


    Population over 15 years old
    Labor force population
    Non-labor population
    Working populationUnemployed
    Potential workforceSchool / housework / others
    Extended job seekers
    Employable non-job seekers

    When it comes to the unemployment rate in JapanUnemployment ratePoint to[44].. An unemployed person is a person who has the will and ability to work but is unable to get a job, so a person who gives up looking for a job (spontaneous unemployed person) is not included in the unemployed person.

    Labor force surveyThen, it is said that they have the will to work, that they are trying to find a job such as going to Hello Work and preparing to start a business. The inability to get a job does not include the case where the employee receives salary from the workplace even if he/she does not have a job, and in such a case, he/she is treated as a leave of absence.

    Relationship with the economy

    The unemployment rate is an important indicator for understanding the economic trends of the entire country[44].. Rising unemployment rate due to recession means increasing economic waste of underutilized workforce[45].

    Unemployment rates fluctuate in relation to various economic activitiesLabor marketSignal that indicates the degree of tightening of supply and demand in[46].

    Controlling unemployment is an important goal of economic policy[47]. Also, reducing unemployment is an important issue in labor economics.[48].

    The unemployment rate is

    1. "Results" of various economic activities
    2. "Factors" that affect economic fluctuations triggered by the unemployment rate

    There are two aspects[47].

    Unemployment rateBusinessIt is said that there is a correlation with, but the movements are not always the same. The unemployment rate is driven by factors related to the economic structure as well as business cycle factors.[49]. traditionalJapanese managementUnder theemploymentIs one of the social missions of a company,Personnel reduction,In particularDismissalThis is because they try to avoid the situation as much as possible and try to determine the situation to the last minute. On the other hand, with regard to recruitment, the larger companies are, the more careful and careful the balance of planning and personnel composition is, and the tendency to avoid unnecessary and urgent recruitment.Non-regular employmentHiring is flexible, and that point must be taken into consideration when looking at employment-related indicators).

    On the worker side as well, as the recession lasts longer, the number of people who lose their willingness to work will increase (the number of job offers will decrease due to the recession, and more people will give up saying that they will not be able to find a job anyway). It becomes a factor to push down, and it seems that the economy has recovered on the surface. On the other hand, in the economic recovery phase (sometimes the number of job offers will increase as the economy improves), some people will start looking for new jobs, so the number of “unemployed people” wishing to work will increase, increasing the unemployment rate. become.

    From the above, the unemployment rateLagging indexHas become[47], It is necessary to look at other economic indicators as well as the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate usually fluctuates by one to one and a half years compared to economic trends.It is also a representative of the leading index of the economy.Stock priceAnd the unemployment rate, which is one of the lagging indexes, may temporarily show the opposite movement.


    The problem of high unemployment is not limited to the decline in national income,

    1. Cause inequality in income distribution
    2. Bring poverty
    3. It hinders people's well-being
    4. Increase the crime rate and suicide rate

    Giving people such pain[50].

    There is a correlation between the unemployment rate and the number of crime cases, and it is reported in the 2006 White Paper on Crime that the number of crime cases decreases when the unemployment rate decreases.

    Unemployment rate in each country

    The unemployment rate and the general condition of each country are shown. However, the calculation standard is different from Japan in many countries.

    • The United States of America -America suffered from high unemployment in the 1970s, butIT revolutionAs a result, the unemployment rate has improved. The unemployment rate, which is one of the Fed's benchmarks for interest rate judgments, has attracted the most attention in the world.
    • Germany -The unemployment rate in former West Germany was not high until the 1980s, but in 1989Berlin Wall CollapseSince then, the unemployment rate has remained high due to the high unemployment of the former East Germany, but the export economy has developed due to the benefit of the weak euro of the EU membership, and it is said that one of the euro-introducing countries will win. It was a very low unemployment rate.Germany # EconomySee also
    • France -Suffering from high unemployment, labor policy is affecting political affairs. Also, assuming that you are taking jobsImmigrationThere is also a strong wind hit.France # high unemployment rate,2005 Suburban Paris Riot CaseSee also
    • Singapore 2.25% (2019)[1]
    • Republic of China(Taiwan) 3.73% (2019)[1]
    • Euro area(EU) 6.7% (2019, ages 15 to 75)[54]
    • (I.e. -The unemployment rate is set at 2004% as of 90 because almost all people except government employees are unemployed due to economic collapse and financial failure. After that, the unemployment rate will be 2011% as of 23.[1].
    • Japan --3.0% (2020,Unemployment rate).

    Countries with longer unemployment benefit periods tend to have higher unemployment rates, while shorter periods of benefit tend to lower unemployment rates.[55][56][57]

    High youth unemployment issues in foreign countries

    Until 2007, the research team analyzed that there was no intergenerational disparity in relative poverty levels in Europe.However, since 2007, the income of the elderly aged 65 and over in Europe has increased by 10%, while the income of the young aged 15-24 has declined rather sharply over the same period.The research team said in the background, "Youth unemployment rate". According to the EU Statistics Bureau, the youth unemployment rate in the EU region was 2007% in 15.6, but after soaring to 2014% in 23.8, the long-term high youth unemployment rate continues at 2016% in 20.9. ..In 2014, when the youth unemployment problem reached its limit in Europe, Spain was 53.2%, Greece was 52.4% and Italy was 42.7%, and about half of them, 15 to 25 years old, were unemployed.Researchers at the International Monetary Fund said, "The long-term curse of unemployment makes it even harder for young people to find jobs." It is the generation with the highest proportions, and the youth will be the most vulnerable and hit when the financial crisis recurs. " In 2017, the global youth unemployment rate deteriorated for the second consecutive year to 13.1%.The number of people aged 15 to 24 in the world who are unemployed is expected to increase to 2017 million in 7090 and 2018 million in 7110.[59].

    In contrast to South Korea, where young people have difficulty finding employment due to the high youth unemployment rate, the number of Koreans who find employment in Japan, which is understaffed, is increasing every year.According to the 2017 "Current Status of Foreign Employment" announced by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, the number of Koreans who worked in Japan, which was about 2008 in 2, increased to 2017 as of October 10, which is the first time 5 Over 5900 people. The increase from 5 has increased by about 2016 in one year, which is the largest ever, and has increased by about 1 times in nine years from 8000. The youth unemployment rate in South Korea in 2008 was 9%, the highest since 2.7, and the number of Koreans who are paying attention to Japan as a place of employment is increasing, and the enthusiasm for learning Japanese is recovering.[60].

    Support for the unemployed


    • By Hello Work
      • Training and living support benefits-Payment of living expenses. However, you must take training
      • Long-term support for unemployed-entrusted to a private business to support reemployment. Lending a living fund
      • Difficulty finding employment-Private companies provide housing to support re-employment. Payment of living and job hunting costs
      • Employment Security Financing-Housing rent, rent subsidy (employment insurance Lending for living and job hunting costs (same)
    • By welfare office
      • Emergency housing allowance special provision-Housing allowance based on welfare
    • Social welfare councilDue to
      • Comprehensive support fund-Lending living support costs, housing expenses, etc.
      • Extraordinary Special Bond Lending-Lending living expenses. Until public benefit system is decided

    Unemployment debate


    Economist Steven Randsburg, on the US unemployment statistics, said, "Unemployment statistics include not only the number of unemployed people, but also the average unemployment period. Calculated by averaging the answers over a period of time, resulting in an oversize, long-term unemployed are more likely to be unemployed on the survey day, and short-term unemployed are much more likely to be unemployed on the survey day. Small, so the sample collected on a particular day/week contains a relatively large number of long-term unemployed people."[61].

    Japanese statistics

    The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's 2002 version of the Labor Economic White Paper estimates that 2001% of the total unemployment rate of 5% in 3.9 was structural mismatch unemployment, and 1.1% was unemployment due to lack of demand.[62].Daiichi Kangin Research InstituteAccording to the estimate, the number of unemployed people caused by the mismatch of labor supply and demand in 2000 accounts for about 7% of the total unemployed people. To improve employment, the economic recovery will increase the labor demand. At the same time, it is indispensable to eliminate the labor supply-demand mismatch.[63].

    Employment protection regulations

    “Fluidization of employment” indicates the ease of leaving or changing jobs and means the efficient use of human resources[64].

    Mizuho Research Institute"In the European example,employment insurance The more untidy, the longer the unemployment period of the unemployed is. Unemployed neglect efforts to obtain employment opportunities, causing moral hazard. If unemployment benefits are substantial, the intent to continue unemployment will work. Easy expansion of unemployment insurance must be avoided. In Europe, learning from the failure to expand unemployment insurance, we are shifting the focus of our employment policy from unemployment insurance to education, training and employment placement."[65].


    [How to use footnotes]
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    2. ^ OECD Labor Force Statistics 2020, OECD, (2020), two:10.1787/23083387 
    3. ^ OECD glossary --FULL EMPLOYMENT, OECD, (2004-08), https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=6266 
    4. ^ Asahi Noguchi, Hideomi Tanaka, “Misunderstanding of Structural Reform Theory,” Toyo Keizai, Inc., 2001, 37 pages.
    5. ^ ILOSTAT --Unemployment rate (Report). International Labor Organization. (2020-01). https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/. 
    6. ^ Youth unemployment rate in major countries, Japan is 5%, the lowest OECD surveySankei Shimbun
    7. ^ What Korea should learn from FinlandChosun Ilbo Japanese version
    8. ^ a b c d Gyosuke Kamiki "The most interesting and understandable mechanism of the latest economy-solving simple questions from macroeconomics to microeconomics (textbooks not taught at school)" Nippon Bungeisha, 2008, p. 54.
    9. ^ What is voluntary unemployment?Koto bank
    10. ^ What is frictional unemployment?Koto bank
    11. ^ Yasuyuki Iida “Introduction to the simplest economy in the world. From everyday questions to deflation” Enterbrain, 2010, p.199.
    12. ^ Norihisa Iwata, “What's happening in the Japanese economy,” Toyo Keizai, Inc., 2005, p. 5.
    13. ^ 2nd Unemployment, 3 categories by causeRIETI Nihon Keizai Shimbun October 2013, 10
    14. ^ 14 Labor Economic AnalysisMinistry of Health, Labor and Welfare(As of January 2013, 1Internet archive
    15. ^ Hideomi Tanaka, "Learning Economic Policy in History," SoftBank Creative <SoftBank Shinsho>, 2006, page 23.
    16. ^ a b Hideomi Tanaka, "How to read economic warfare" Kodansha <Kodansha Shinsho>, 2004, p. 43.
    17. ^ a b c Nihon Keizai Shimbun ed., "A Masterpiece of Economics that Changed the World", Nikkei Business Nikkei Business Bunko, 2013, p.217.
    18. ^ Hideomi Tanaka, "How to read economic warfare" Kodansha <Kodansha Shinsho>, 2004, p. 42.
    19. ^ "Easy Economics" edited by Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., Nikkei Business Human Bunko, 2001, p. 211.
    20. ^ Hideomi Tanaka, "How to read economic warfare" Kodansha <Kodansha Shinsho>, 2004, p. 46.
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    22. ^ a b Hideomi Tanaka, "How to read economic warfare" Kodansha <Kodansha Shinsho>, 2004, p. 71.
    23. ^ This effective demand is the money supplyCurrency preference・Depends on expected profit rate and propensity to consume. Keynes argued that the effects of wage devaluations had to be taken into account through their impact on these factors, and that the neoclassical debate did not apply to wage devaluations across all industries.
    24. ^ Keynes, John Maynard (2007). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and MoneyBasingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 978-0-230-00476-4. originalArchived as of 16 March 2009.. https://web.archive.org/web/20090316094655/http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/essays/keynes/keynescont.htm 
    25. ^ For this section, see Paul Krugman, Macroeconomics, Chapter 15.
    26. ^ George A. Akerlof, William T. Dickens and George L. Perry (2000), "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Optimal Rates of Inflation and Unemployment"
    27. ^ George A. Akarov, Robert Schiller (2009), Animal Spirit
    28. ^ S. Kuroda and Isao Yamamoto (2003), "Effect of downward rigidity of nominal wage on unemployment rate ─ Verification by simulation of macro model ─"
    29. ^ Tanaka Hideomi, Seiji Adachi, "Heisei University Stagnation and Showa Depression-Introduction to Practical Economics", NHK Publishing <NHK Books>, 2003, p. 42.
    30. ^ "Analysis of Labor Economy in 14" Chapter 7 Overemployment and Potential Unemployment[1]
    31. ^ In underdeveloped countries, workers in the traditional sector (such as self-sufficiency) are called “camouflaged unemployment” or “potential unemployment”. Yasuhisa Sato, ``Potential unemployment in underdeveloped countries: A general equilibrium analysis of causes of stagnation"Research on Economics," Vol. 33, No. 3, p.77-87, Faculty of Economics, Hokkaido University.
    32. ^ Stiglitz "Macroeconomics" p102-103
    33. ^ Kenshi Hirokane, Masaru Takagi "Introduction to Economics from Zero Knowledge" Gentosha, 2008, p.115.
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    35. ^ "US GDP worst at 32.9%, unemployment also increased”. AFP (July 2020, 7). 2020/5/8Browse.
    36. ^ US Business Cycle Expansions and Contracts | NBER
    37. ^ Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
    38. ^ US stock market not afraid of ``wage inflation'' (NY express flight): Nihon Keizai Shimbun
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    40. ^ Zuckerman, Sam (November 2002, 11). “Official unemployment numbers omit discouraged seekers, part-time workers”. San Francisco Chronicle. originalArchived as of October 2011, 6.. https://web.archive.org/web/20110629055550/http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=%2Fchronicle%2Farchive%2F2002%2F11%2F17%2FBU239666.DTL 2011/7/27Browse. 
    41. ^ US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization Retrieved 5 August 2010.
    42. ^ "Labor Force Statistics (CPS), Alternative Measures U-1 through U-6”. Bureau of Labor Statistics (January 2012, 1). 2012/1/6Browse.
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    • HMG (UK Government)Kenzo KashinoTranslated "New welfare contract British ambition" Tezukayama University Press, 2008.

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